Ten years following the UK entered into a hurried referendum that polarised the country and triggered disorder, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and voters drifted into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two prominent commentators from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can build support swiftly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Intends to Provoke Discussion
The team have examined the political, financial and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the issue with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles all parties, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily split population where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the those successful are uncertain exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim this point is approaching, and a group named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and unionists downplay the likelihood, leaving it unclear when or if there might be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has hidden the lack of serious debate, said the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to realise it has largely not occurred. Much has occurred in academia but scarcely any elected officials or campaigners want to engage with even the essentials. As an example, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, neither author supports unification or the status quo. Each composes two articles that aim for neutrality in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling financial and societal figures, past examples and structural examples.
Debates range over identity markers, levies, medical care, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to educate and provoke discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there has not yet occurred a debate," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an acceptance of the idea that there may exist valid points on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they favour unification but reject increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to reflect unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin must establish what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
McBride considers a referendum in his era is likely and that it might occur unexpectedly. "There might be just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent secretary of state who declares: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified arguments, he said. "One side will prevail here and somebody will in the end be defeated but all factions has possesses something to gain from the opposing arguments."
Appeal for Broader Discussion
Westminster should join the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This involves your state. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish question."
